Are more homes coming to the market over the next 10 years? New national research says yes, and most will be family-sized.

I'm a local realtor in Delray Beach and Boca Raton. I recently posted that South Florida isn't just a retiree destination anymore. The tide is shifting, and this research shows a related shift in the nation's housing.

Quick answer: Baby boomers and the Silent Generation are projected to release about 13.9 million owner-occupied homes from 2026 to 2036, according to new Realtor.com research reported by Florida Realtors. That's about 1.39 million a year on average, though not all will necessarily be listed. These are national numbers, not Florida or Palm Beach County numbers.

About 9.9 million (71%) are 3- or 4-bedroom homes, and 3.6 million more have 5+ bedrooms. Only about 380,000 are starter homes with 2 bedrooms or fewer.

A few more numbers from the report

These generations own about 36.7 million homes today. Realtor.com projects that will fall to 22.8 million by 2036, and the projected turnover is about 34% higher than the previous decade.

Starter homes get much less relief. Older owners hold about 1.33 million homes with 2 bedrooms or fewer, but only about 380,000 are expected to be released by 2036, roughly 38,000 a year. The article says one reason may be that smaller-home owners are more likely to own outright: 72.8% of starter-home owners ages 70 to 79 have no mortgage, compared with 65.1% of family-home owners and 58.9% of large-home owners.

Realtor.com expects the shift to be gradual, with supply concentrated in family-sized homes and slower-growing markets. Senior economist Jiayi Xu said, "The question for buyers and sellers isn't whether more homes are coming, but which homes, where and how many buyers will be there to meet them." Xu also said, "The handoff is a welcome relief, but it is not big enough to solve the housing shortage issue alone."

What I think it means locally

Move-up buyers looking for a bigger home may see more choices over time, and sellers of larger homes may face more competition. Realtor.com expects much less relief for first-time buyers shopping for smaller homes. The research has no numbers for Delray or Boca, so I'd watch our local listings before assuming anything.

I tell my clients to stop trying to time the market and spend time in the market.

Thinking about moving up or selling in Delray or Boca? Call or text me at 954-817-9463.